Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Popular pairs in Forex

Without a doubt the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, as currency pairs, receive a great deal of attention by online Forex traders.
Each provides tradable patterns almost every day. Why some traders prefer trading one of these pairs versus the other is almost a matter of personal preference. Both pairs will reflect global sentiment regarding the dollar. As a result, it is usually the case that they will share the same trend patterns.
If world reaction to economic news is positive for the US economy, as a general rule, both the Euro and the GBP will tend to weaken. The chart below, for example, shows how the EUR/USD and the GBP have moved on the 1 hour pattern. Notice how similar the patterns are. The hour charts below show that both pairs provided a similar reaction to the Nov 4th economic release of the non-farm payroll report.
Clearly, it is hard to develop an argument of which pair is better to trade. But there is more that the online Forex trader can do with these pairs. online Forex traders can generate totally new trading opportunities by dropping the US dollar component of the pair and, thereby, creating a Cross-pair known as the EUR/GBP Before we take a look at the EUR/GBP chart, let’s try to understand what makes this pair a good source of trades, particularly, in the coming year.
The best way to understanding this Cross-pair is to realize that it generates a picture of the battle between two different economies- the EU vs. the British economy.
The EU countries experience different levels of economic growth and expectations of growth than that of Great Britain.
As a result, there is a constant flow back and forth of capital between these regions and this flow results in frequent range like behavior and price swings as can be seen in the day chart below.

Foreign currency mortgage

A foreign currency mortgage is a mortgage which is repayable in a currency other than the currency of the country in which the borrower is a resident. Foreign currency mortgages can be used to finance both personal mortgages and corporate mortgages.
The interest rate charged on a Foreign currency mortgage is based on the interest rates applicable to the currency in which the mortgage is denominated and not the interest rates applicable to the borrower's own domestic currency. Therefore, a Foreign currency mortgage should only be considered when the interest rate on the foreign currency is significantly lower than the borrower can obtain on a mortgage taken out in his or her domestic currency.
Borrowers should bear in mind that ultimately they have a liability to repay the mortgage in another currency and currency exchange rates constantly change. This means that if the borrower's domestic currency was to strengthen against the currency in which the mortgage is denominated, then it would cost the borrower less in domestic currency to fully repay the mortgage. Therefore, in effect, the borrower makes a capital saving.
Conversely, if the exchange rate of borrowers domestic currency were to weaken against the currency in which the mortgage is denominated, then it would cost the borrower more in their domestic currency to repay the mortgage. Therefore, the borrower makes a capital loss.
When the value of the mortgage is large, it may be possible to reduce or limit the risk in the exchange exposure by hedging (see below).
Managed currency mortgages can help to reduce risk exposure. A borrower can allow a specialist currency manager to manage their loan on their behalf (through a limited power of attorney), where the currency manager will switch the borrower's debt in and out of foreign currencies as they change in value against the base currency. A successful currency manager will move the borrower's debt into a currency which subsequently falls in value against the base currency. The manager can then switch the loan back into the base currency (or another weakening currency) at a better exchange rate, thereby reducing the value of the loan. A further benefit of this product is that the currency manager will try to select currencies with a lower interest rate than the base currency, and the borrower therefore can make substantial interest savings.
There are risks associated with these types of mortgages and the borrower must be prepared to accept an (often limited) increase in the value of their debt if there are adverse movements in the currency markets.